LAB #2211 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.6% (+0.8pp, n=1045) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the 5 rizzy5m entries (all XAUUSD shorts and the GBPUSD short) — those are the only trades whose timestamps fall in the manipulation phase per your backtest definition. That removes 4 losses and 1 win (the EURJPY win on 07-31), leaving 5 trades: 4 wins and 1 open (USDJPY). Net effect: win rate on closed trades jumps from 5/9 (55.6%) to 4/4 (100%), and PnL improves by roughly +3.2R (removing 4 losses at ~-1R each, losing one +1.2R win). However, this is a tiny, cherry-picked sample — the filter would also have blocked the EURJPY win, so the real delta is smaller than the headline suggests. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +0.8pp win-rate gain (31.9%→32.6%) is marginal and likely within noise for n=1 Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com