LAB #2174 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.8pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Based on the backtest lift (+1.8pp), roughly 2–3 of these 10 trades would likely have been filtered out — most plausibly the XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT loss, as those were trend-following entries likely entering at wider phase distances. Removing 2–3 losers from a 10-trade window (currently 5W/5L) would shift the window to roughly 5W/2–3L, a win-rate jump from 50% to ~63–71%, and a PnL delta of approximately +2R to +3R (assuming average risk per trade). However, the filter might also exclude one winner (e.g., EURJPY LONG or GBPUSD LONG), so the net effect is positive but not drama Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22742246
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2174 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2174 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.8pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Based on the backtest lift (+1.8pp), roughly 2–3 of these 10 trades would likely have been filtered out — most plausibly the XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT loss, as those were trend-following entries likely entering at wider phase distances. Removing 2–3 losers from a 10-trade window (currently 5W/5L) would shift the window to roughly 5W/2–3L, a win-rate jump from 50% to ~63–71%, and a PnL delta of approximately +2R to +3R (assuming average risk per trade). However, the filter might also exclude one winner (e.g., EURJPY LONG or GBPUSD LONG), so the net effect is positive but not drama Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2174 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS