LAB #2174 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.8pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Based on the backtest lift (+1.8pp), roughly 2–3 of these 10 trades would likely have been filtered out — most plausibly the XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT loss, as those were trend-following entries likely entering at wider phase distances. Removing 2–3 losers from a 10-trade window (currently 5W/5L) would shift the window to roughly 5W/2–3L, a win-rate jump from 50% to ~63–71%, and a PnL delta of approximately +2R to +3R (assuming average risk per trade). However, the filter might also exclude one winner (e.g., EURJPY LONG or GBPUSD LONG), so the net effect is positive but not drama Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22742246
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint