The effect of lifting housing purchase restrictions on commuting costs: evidence from Jinan, China

This study examines whether lifting housing purchase restrictions (HPRs) affects commuting costs among metro commuters in Jinan, China. Using nine observation months of metro smart-card records from June 2021 to June 2023, this study exploits cross-district variation in HPR termination and estimates difference-in-differences and event-study models. The results show that HPR termination is associated with a 0.355-minute increase in average metro commuting time among commuters residing in districts where HPRs were terminated, relative to commuters in districts that retained restrictions. This estimate equals approximately 1.29% of the sample mean commuting time of 27.42 min. Event-study estimates support the parallel trends assumption and indicate a delayed response, with the increase becoming statistically significant in the third post-termination period. Commuter-type analysis further shows that the increase in commuting time is more pronounced among incumbent metro commuters, especially relocated incumbent metro commuters. These findings suggest that terminating demand-side housing eligibility constraints may affect commuting outcomes by expanding the set of feasible residential choices. The commuter-type results are also consistent with residential location adjustment among incumbent metro commuters. This suggests that HPR termination should be coordinated with transit provision, employment opportunities, and public-service provision in districts where restrictions are removed.