Public housing waitlists and housing affordability: evidence from Kuwait

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether changes in the Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) public housing waiting list are associated with residential real estate price dynamics in Kuwait. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Ministry of Justice residential transaction data for Kuwait from 2006 to 2023, aggregated at the residential area, property type and year level. Weighted least squares regressions estimate the association between changes in the PAHW waiting list and residential price growth, controlling for government wages, bank lending, the Central Bank of Kuwait discount rate, property type and residential area characteristics. Findings Growth in the PAHW waiting list is positively associated with increases in residential real estate prices. A 1,000-applicant increase is associated with approximately a 0.45% increase in prices in the following year and a 0.92% contemporaneous increase. High-backlog periods are associated with broad-based price increases, while backlog reductions are linked to price stabilization or declines, particularly in mid-priced areas. Research limitations/implications The analysis is associational and constrained by available administrative data, which do not permit the construction of hedonic or repeat-sales price indices. Practical implications Backlog reductions are associated with improved affordability concentrated in mid-priced areas, suggesting that accelerating public housing delivery may ease affordability pressures without destabilizing high-end segments. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study provides the first empirical evidence from a Gulf Cooperation Council market on the association between changes in a nationwide public-housing waitlist and private residential real estate prices.