Contract and digital chains: the effect of dual-chain coupling on farmers’ credit access

This study investigates how the integration of contract and digital chains is associated with farmers’ access to formal credit under conditions of information asymmetry and collateral scarcity. Using microdata from the China Rural Revitalization Survey (CRRS), multidimensional indices are constructed to measure participation depth in both chains, and a Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) model is applied to estimate the relationship between dual-chain coupling and farmers’ credit outcomes, together with supplementary channel analyses. The results show that dual-chain coupling significantly increases both the amount of credit received and the likelihood of obtaining credit. The contract-chain and digital-chain indices are also positively and significantly associated with credit amounts when examined separately, indicating that both dimensions provide important foundations for the credit-enhancing role of dual-chain coupling. The channel analyses provide evidence consistent with the view that dual-chain coupling is associated with higher income and improved information efficiency, which may strengthen repayment capacity and reduce lenders’ screening costs. The association is significantly stronger among better-educated farmers, while the results also provide suggestive evidence of a stronger association outside major grain-producing regions. A supplementary nonlinear analysis indicates that the positive association between dual-chain coupling and credit amount becomes statistically detectable only after CCI enters the moderate-to-high range, suggesting that organizational and digital participation need to reach a sufficient degree of coordination before their joint credit benefits become empirically evident. The findings imply that coordinating cooperatives and e-commerce platforms can support a rural credit system based on organizational participation and traceable data.