The Rate of Optimization of Lekki Deep Seaport on National Cargo Throughput and Economic Expansion Rate of Nigeria: An ARDL Anchored Assessment (An Academic and Policy Framework)

In this new era of efficiency and technology, the 16m deep Lekki Port present Nigeria with Global handshake of unlimited possibilities, with the capacity to accommodate global biggest vessels, decongest other local Ports while transforming Nigeria into a shipping hub that fundamentally expands the countries trade and spotlights a bright future for maritime commerce in West Africa. This study examines the rate of optimization of Lekki Deep Seaport on cargo throughput and economic expansion in Nigeria using monthly data from January 2022 to December 2025. As Nigeria’s first deep-water port, Lekki commenced operations in April 2023 under a Public-Private Partnership to address decades of congestion at Apapa and Tin-Can Island ports while eliminating the huge cost of transhipment as a result of the inability of big vessels to access the countries shallow ports Anchored on Port-Led Growth Theory and New Economic Geography Theory, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Error Correction Model to estimate both short-run and long-run effects. Specifically, two models were evaluated: Model 1 assesses the impact of Lekki Deep Seaport commencement on the national cargo throughput of Nigeria within the review period, while Model 2 examines the impact of national trade on Nigeria economic expansion rate within same period of study. The ARDL bounds test confirms the existence of long-run cointegration in both models. The long-run results from Model 1 show that the commencement of Lekki Deep Seaport has a positive and statistically significant effect on national cargo throughput with a coefficient of 0.0482. This implies that the operationalization of the port increases Nigeria’s national cargo throughput by 4.82% in the long run. Other significant drivers include total trade and oil price. Results from Model 2 reveal that national cargo throughput has a positive and significant impact on economic expansion rate with elasticity of 0.5218. This indicates that a 1% increase in cargo throughput leads to a 0.52% increase in economic activity in the long run. Given these results, the implied indirect long-run impact of Lekki Seaport commencement on Nigeria’s economic expansion rate is approximately 2.52%. The error correction term shows a fast speed of adjustment of 54.34% per month. Diagnostic tests confirm the models are free from serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The study output posits that the operationalization of Lekki deep seaport led to a significant increase in national cargo throughput and transmitted positively to economic expansion after controlling for total trade, oil price, oil exports, and inflation. This findings provide the first econometric estimate of Lekki deep seaport’s monthly optimization rate and offer policy-relevant parameters for replicating the PPP port model in other coastal states. Conclusively, the study clearly indicate that investment in Lekki deep-Sea Port infrastructure significantly enhances trade capacity and economic expansion of Nigeria. The study recommends accelerated hinterland rail connectivity and digital port clearance to maximize Lekki’s growth spillovers.