MODEL ADOPTION #2205: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.5% — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the 5-confirmation filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+1.6pp) is real but likely offset by 15–25% fewer trades and worse average R:R (later entries on trends). Net PnL probably flat-to-negative. The 4-loss elimination in the sample is cherry-picked; broader backtest shows only marginal net benefit. RISK: Filter introduces systematic lag on fast pairs (XAUUSD, USDJPY), increasing slippage. It also cuts off early trend entries where E8 rhythm logic has its highest reward-to-risk — degrading the very edge that makes the model profitable. The filter is a generic noise-reduction heuristic, not aligned with Gods-Clock phase timing. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench on the exact live signal stream with 300+ trades per arm (A: all signals, B: ≥5 confirmations). Must show: (1) win rate ≥ +2.5pp, (2) average R:R within 5% of baseline, (3) total PnL ≥ +10% Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22742681
Primary Topic
Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #2205: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.5% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #2205: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.5% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the 5-confirmation filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+1.6pp) is real but likely offset by 15–25% fewer trades and worse average R:R (later entries on trends). Net PnL probably flat-to-negative. The 4-loss elimination in the sample is cherry-picked; broader backtest shows only marginal net benefit. RISK: Filter introduces systematic lag on fast pairs (XAUUSD, USDJPY), increasing slippage. It also cuts off early trend entries where E8 rhythm logic has its highest reward-to-risk — degrading the very edge that makes the model profitable. The filter is a generic noise-reduction heuristic, not aligned with Gods-Clock phase timing. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench on the exact live signal stream with 300+ trades per arm (A: all signals, B: ≥5 confirmations). Must show: (1) win rate ≥ +2.5pp, (2) average R:R within 5% of baseline, (3) total PnL ≥ +10% Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.