Configurational Dynamics of Agricultural Carbon Reduction in China’s Yellow River Basin

Agricultural carbon reduction (ACR) is important for the green transformation of agriculture and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin. However, ACR is not driven by a single factor. How different conditions combine and change over time remains unclear. Based on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework, this study examines 77 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2017 to 2022. Six antecedent conditions are considered: agricultural technological innovation (ATI), agricultural mechanization (AM), government environmental attention (GEA), government fiscal intervention (GFI), agricultural industrial structure (AIS), and urbanization (URB). Multi-period fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is used to identify the pathways to high ACR, their temporal evolution, and regional differences. The results show that (1) no single antecedent condition is necessary for high ACR in either period; (2) four high-ACR pathways are identified in the baseline period (2017–2019), comprising three types: agricultural structure–urbanization synergy, agricultural technological innovation-led, and technology–equipment–urbanization synergy; (3) four high-ACR pathways are also identified in the transition period (2020–2022). AIS is present in all four pathways, compared with only two pathways in the baseline period, and combines with AM or URB in different configurations; and (4) regional comparisons reveal alternative configurations of production and governance conditions. Upstream pathways include technology–equipment–government combinations, midstream pathways retain both technological and structural alternatives, and downstream pathways show a more pervasive role for AIS in the later period. These findings suggest that effective ACR policies should match local production and governance conditions rather than uniformly increase individual policy inputs.