LAB #2136 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.8% (+1.8pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades entering outside that band. In the current window, the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (4048.74, 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) likely fall outside the band based on typical phase timing; the AUDUSD and USDCAD wins may fall inside. If so, you'd have removed 3 losses and kept 2 wins, flipping the window from 4W/5L to 2W/0L — a clear PnL improvement, but the sample is tiny and the filter's selectivity is unverified. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +1.8pp win-rate gain on n=157 is statistically weak (p≈0.15–0.20) and could easily be noise. The filter will also reduce trade frequency — likely by 20–40% — which may cut absolute PnL even if win rate rises. Risk: the 5–10° band may be overfit to recent regim Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com