Occupational Fit and Agrarian Reordering in Bursa: Labor, Production, and Forced Migration After the 1923 Turkish–Greek Population Exchange

This study examines how the 1923 Turkish–Greek population exchange reshaped the rural economy of Bursa by assessing whether migrant occupational profiles matched the ecological and property conditions of receiving localities. Drawing on the correspondence from the Fifth Settlement Zone, Republican archival files, yearbooks, parliamentary proceedings, agricultural censuses, and economic-geography maps, it compares three settlement clusters: Demirtaş–Kelesen–Tepecik, Apolyont (Gölyazı), and Karacaoba–İkizce–Filader (Gündoğdu). Post-exchange outcomes depended less on aggregate population replacement than on occupational fit: alignment of agrarian knowledge with local production ecologies and available housing enabled faster recovery; misalignment deepened disruption. These patterns help account for rapid tobacco expansion, delayed olive adoption, and contraction in sericulture and viticulture, showing how forced migration reallocated labour, expertise, property, and village geography after 1923.