Who is concerned about climate change when forests are burning? Evidence from Swedish forest fires

I examine how individuals update their environmental attitudes in response to climate events using the extensive Swedish forest fires in 2018. Political scientists have suggested that motivated reasoning contributes to divergence in environmental attitudes over time. It remains empirically unclear whether the growing prominence of climate events could potentially widen or bridge these political divides. I document rising environmental concerns following the fires. The extent of these increases did not appear to be associated with the intensity of local fires but varied significantly by individuals’ prior beliefs. Green-left-leaning individuals exhibited stronger prior concerns and showed larger increases in concern after the fires than conservative-right-leaning individuals. The growing concern suggests that climate events exacerbate political polarization in environmental attitudes rather than mitigating it. I also find no evidence that exposure to climate change news explains the observed political polarization in concerns. These patterns are consistent with motivated reasoning along partisan lines shaping differential reactions to climate disasters. In contrast, I do not find similar patterns for support for a higher carbon tax, indicating that increased concern does not necessarily translate into support for climate policy.