MODEL ADOPTION #2117: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.0% to 42.2% — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations ≥6" filter is a statistical artifact, not a geometric edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes confirmation timing via phase alignment; adding a fixed count threshold violates the model's time-symmetry principle and will misfire in trending regimes where early entries are the only valid ones. EXPECTED IMPACT: If forced, win rate might rise +4–7pp in choppy regimes, but average R per trade would shrink (you'd cut the fat tails that drive profit). Net PnL likely flat to negative over 3–6 months because the filter removes high-momentum winners (e.g., EURJPY SHORT at 184.144) that compensate for low win rate. RISK: The filter is regime-correlated — it will block entries during volatility compression (low confirmations) and then re-enter exactly at the top of expansions, buying tops and selling bottoms. Also, it introduces a non-geometric parameter that will overfit to the 360-trade sample and degrade Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22732636
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint