Climate change effects on Mediterranean pine forests are faster than previously predicted

Climate change affects forests in multiple and contrasting ways, from promoting tree growth to prohibiting growth and threatening survival. Aleppo pine is one of the most important tree species across the Mediterranean, and in 2020 we produced spatial projections of how the species would respond to climate change. We reviewed the most recent literature on Pinus halepensis growth responses to climate across the Mediterranean, evaluating these studies within the framework of our 2020 projections rather than through a conventional systematic review. Those predicted higher growth inhibition in: (1) coastal vs. continental populations; (2) range edge vs. core sites; and (3) dry vs. wet sites. We therefore used these spatial patterns as explicit hypotheses and tested them against newly available field evidence. In line with our hypotheses, studies that were published since 2020 (after our projections) indicate consistently higher climate sensitivity of P. halepensis populations in coastal, range edge, and dry sites. Therefore, our review on the current status of P. halepensis forests raises serious concerns about their future in the Mediterranean. Processes which were originally projected to occur well into the second half of this century are already underway. In essence, the effects of climate change on Mediterranean pine forests are unfolding faster than previously anticipated. Nevertheless, a wide range of forest-management interventions remains available with non-exhausted potential.