COSMIC-005: Dark Energy Trend Persistence in the DESI Five-Year Dataset (Preregistration)

Preregistration of COSMIC Framework prediction COSMIC-005, stated before the DESI five-year (DR3) cosmology analysis is released. The prediction: the dark energy evolution DESI reported in DR1 and DR2 persists and strengthens in DR3. Using DESI BAO with CMB data and no supernovae, DR3's preference for an evolving equation of state over a cosmological constant is higher than DR2's (about 3.1σ), with the best fit staying in the quadrant w0 > −1, wa < 0. No specific parameter values are claimed. The record fixes green, yellow and red outcomes in advance, states what was already public at the time of filing, and names the revision the framework makes if the prediction fails. It is the framework's first formally pre-registered dark energy prediction; the earlier COSMIC-001 is not claimed as prior to DESI DR1 or DR2. The Markdown file is the canonical record; its SHA-256 lets anyone confirm a copy is unaltered. The PDF is a formatted rendering of the same text.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22719514
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

COSMIC-005: Dark Energy Trend Persistence in the DESI Five-Year Dataset (Preregistration)

Michael Baines
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
article

COSMIC-005: Dark Energy Trend Persistence in the DESI Five-Year Dataset (Preregistration)

Michael Baines
article en

Abstract

Preregistration of COSMIC Framework prediction COSMIC-005, stated before the DESI five-year (DR3) cosmology analysis is released. The prediction: the dark energy evolution DESI reported in DR1 and DR2 persists and strengthens in DR3. Using DESI BAO with CMB data and no supernovae, DR3's preference for an evolving equation of state over a cosmological constant is higher than DR2's (about 3.1σ), with the best fit staying in the quadrant w0 > −1, wa < 0. No specific parameter values are claimed. The record fixes green, yellow and red outcomes in advance, states what was already public at the time of filing, and names the revision the framework makes if the prediction fails. It is the framework's first formally pre-registered dark energy prediction; the earlier COSMIC-001 is not claimed as prior to DESI DR1 or DR2. The Markdown file is the canonical record; its SHA-256 lets anyone confirm a copy is unaltered. The PDF is a formatted rendering of the same text.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Institute of Cancer Research (CA)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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