The Circular Loop Revisited: Vendor Financing in the Telecom Bubble and the AI Infrastructure Buildout

Abstract This study asks whether AI infrastructure financing in 2023-2026 shows warning signs like telecom vendor financing before the 2001 collapse. It uses a qualitative case study to compare selected telecom and AI financing ties across six measures: financing size, accounting treatment, loan terms, credit risk, the gap between infrastructure and revenue, and market stress. The results partly support the telecom-AI comparison, especially in the size of commitments and the growing infrastructure-to-revenue gap. Still, the financing structures change, the opposing parties are stronger, and widespread defaults have not appeared. The telecom experience is best used as an early-warning framework, not as proof that an AI collapse must follow.