LAB #2085 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.5% (+3.4pp, n=62) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.5% (+3.4pp, n=62) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, the NZDUSD LONG filter would have had **zero direct impact** — none of the 10 listed trades involve NZDUSD. The claimed +3.4pp win-rate improvement (32.0%→35.5%) is based on a small sample (n=62) and likely reflects a period-specific regime (e.g., NZD strength or USD weakness) rather than a structural edge. If applied, it would only alter future trade selection, not retroactively change any of these closed/open positions. Expected PnL delta over this exact window: **$0**. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would reduce trade frequency (excluding all NZDUSD shorts) and could improve win rate if the NZDUSD long bias persists — but the effect is likely **regime-dependent and fragile**. The +3.4pp is within noise for n=62 (95% CI roughly ±12pp), so the true effect could be Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com