Scientific Evidence Map for the GBM Bubble (GMBTR) Hypothesis: Independent Evidence Base, Evidentiary Boundaries, and Testable Extensions

The GBM Bubble (GMBTR) Hypothesis proposes that the functional state of a honey bee colony emerges from dynamic interactions among genetic structure, behavior, microbiome, and the changing internal and external conditions of the colony. This document does not attempt to present GMBTR as an experimentally validated model. Instead, it maps the major components of the hypothesis against independent scientific evidence and explicitly separates three levels: experimentally established mechanisms, biologically supported integrations, and GMBTR-specific hypotheses that remain to be tested. The evidence reviewed includes experimental work on microbiome effects on honey bee physiology and social behavior, social acquisition and transmission of microbiota, behavioral and demographic plasticity, intracolonial genetic diversity, patriline-specific task responses, and the functional consequences of genetic diversity for colony performance and disease resistance. Particular attention is given to evidence that patrilines may respond differently when colony-level task stimuli change. Such findings provide an experimental basis for the GMBTR proposition that a relatively stable genetic composition may produce a changing functional genetic expression as colony needs and states change. The document then identifies the principal extensions that remain specific to the GMBTR framework, including Adaptive Priority Reallocation (APR), state transitions, variable functional expression of patrilines, functional reserve, cumulative reorganization costs, and a systems-level interpretation of colony resilience. The purpose of this evidence map is therefore not to validate GMBTR through citation, but to define as precisely as possible where established evidence ends and where new, testable predictions of the hypothesis begin.