LAB #2084 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a EURUSD LONG-only filter would have excluded zero of the ten listed trades, as none are EURUSD. Therefore, no direct PnL or win-rate change occurs in this specific window. The claimed +3.5pp win-rate improvement (n=45) is not observable here, so the live impact is nil for this sample. The filter's benefit, if real, would only appear in a larger EURUSD-specific subset, which this window lacks. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a EURUSD LONG filter could reduce trade frequency and concentrate risk on a single pair's long bias. If the backtest's +3.5pp is statistically robust (n=45 is small, margin of error ~±14pp at 95% CI), it might lift overall win rate slightly, but it also risks missing EURUSD short opportunities that could be profitable. The main risk is overfitting to a short, favorable period; Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22719953
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2084 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2084 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a EURUSD LONG-only filter would have excluded zero of the ten listed trades, as none are EURUSD. Therefore, no direct PnL or win-rate change occurs in this specific window. The claimed +3.5pp win-rate improvement (n=45) is not observable here, so the live impact is nil for this sample. The filter's benefit, if real, would only appear in a larger EURUSD-specific subset, which this window lacks. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a EURUSD LONG filter could reduce trade frequency and concentrate risk on a single pair's long bias. If the backtest's +3.5pp is statistically robust (n=45 is small, margin of error ~±14pp at 95% CI), it might lift overall win rate slightly, but it also risks missing EURUSD short opportunities that could be profitable. The main risk is overfitting to a short, favorable period; Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2084 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 35.6% (+3.5pp, n=45) — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS