Security evaluation and coupling coordination of the water–energy–food–carbon system in Northeast China

Summary In China’s push towards peak carbon and carbon neutrality targets, the coordinated, secure and sustainable development of water resources, energy, food and carbon is of vital importance. To analyse the current security status and degree of coupling coordination in the water–energy–food–carbon (WEFC) coupling system in Northeast China, this paper constructs an indicator system to evaluate the security level and changes over 2013–2022 of the system by integrating an entropy approach, a coupling coordination mechanism and a comprehensive safety evaluation model. The coupling coordination degree of the WEFC system is also predicted for the period 2023–2030 using a long short-term memory model. The analysis demonstrates that the comprehensive security status of the WEFC system in Northeast China remained relatively low from 2013 to 2022, with the subsystem of water resources exerting the most pronounced influence. The security evaluation indices of the energy and carbon subsystems showed steady growth, while those of the water resources and food subsystems experienced fluctuating growth. The coupling coordination degree underwent minor fluctuations due to policy interventions and climatic impacts but revealed a gradually improving trajectory. Influenced by resource endowments, the northern and southern regions of Northeast China displayed more disharmony than the central region (Jilin > Liaoning > Heilongjiang) in terms of coordination levels. The coupling coordination degree is expected to continue to increase and progress towards a high-level coordination state by 2030.