Predicting the Magnitude of Upcoming Powerful Earthquakes by Integrating LAI Anomalies Gathered by Remote Sensing Satellites: The Case of Kamchatka–Russia Earthquake (July 29, 2025; Mw = 8.8)

Abstract At 2324:52 UTC (local time = UTC + 1200) on July 29, 2025, an earthquake (Mw = 8.8) as the most powerful earthquake worldwide since the 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku event in Japan and ranking among the ten largest quakes recorded globally since 1900, struck east of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia (52.512° N, 160.324° E, depth ~35 km). Also following the earthquake of the Kamchatka Peninsula, at least seven volcanoes including Klyuchevskoy and Krasheninnikov on July 30 and August 3, respectively erupted. This study analyzed time series variations of 47 parameters derived from 14 independent precursors including surface and air temperature, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), carbon monoxide (CO), Sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone, Methane, GPS-Total Electron Content (TEC), electron density (Ne), electron temperature (Te), and magnetic scalar and vector components (B, Bx, By, Bz), collected from satellite observations between June 1 and August 5, 2025, to identify possible seismic and volcanic anomalies in the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere (LAI) system around the location of the mentioned event. Next, an attempt was made to estimate the earthquake magnitude by integrating the detected LAI anomalies using two theories: Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Dempster-Shaffer (DS). Clear LAI anomalies were observed in the period of about 30 days before to 7 days after the earthquake, and the possible LAIC (LAI Coupling) mechanism was discussed. Also, the earthquake magnitude was estimated with reasonable accuracy in the days before the event. The coincidence of the main earthquake, foreshocks, and aftershocks with volcanic activities in the region acknowledges the occurrence of some LAI anomalies. The results of this study, in continuation of previous studies, emphasize that in a very large percentage of powerful earthquakes (Mw > 7.5), the observation of LAI anomalies is inevitable.