Diagnostic assessment of Marine Protected Area performance using the Social-Ecological System framework in coastal Bangladesh

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are important instruments to safeguard biodiversity and human well-being. In Bangladesh, previous MPA-related studies have focused on MPA zoning, Hilsa sanctuary, fisheries co-management, or community livelihood issues. Only limited empirical research has examined MPAs by integrating governance, actor-level, livelihood, and environmental dimensions within a single diagnostic framework, leaving a clear gap in MPA assessment in Bangladesh. This study addresses those gaps by applying a Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to assess the Nijhum Dwip MPA six years after its establishment. A mixed-methods design was used in a survey of 384 MPA-dependent resource users, along with indicators from satellite-derived land-use and land-cover changes, sea surface temperature, cyclone frequency, and district-level marine fisheries catch data. The findings reveal that general awareness of the MPA was relatively high, but participation, transparency, livelihood assistance, and perceptions of equity were limited. Environmental indicators showed a significant warming trend in sea surface temperature, variable land cover patterns, and a fluctuating district-level trend in marine fish capture. The findings provide an SES-based post-establishment diagnostic analysis for the Nijhum Dwip MPA. The key contribution of this study is the first integration of governance-actor, livelihood, and environmental-pressure indicators within a single SES diagnostic framework for an MPA in Bangladesh. We assess governance-actor mismatch, livelihood constraints, and environmental pressures in this climate-vulnerable deltaic MPA, without making causal claims about effectiveness or recovery. Our findings provide practical insights for improving participatory and climate-sensitive MPA governance in Bangladesh and similar coastal regions.