A Full Restoration Trajectory Framework for Assessing Dryland Tree-Based Restoration

Dryland reforestation and afforestation have expanded rapidly worldwide. Their success depends not only on tree establishment, but also on long-term persistence and goal attainment. Yet how well these dimensions are addressed across the full restoration trajectory remains unclear. Here, we developed a full restoration trajectory assessment framework and used LLM-assisted literature analysis to systematically evaluate 2362 empirical studies of dryland tree-based restoration. Our results showed substantial imbalances across the restoration trajectory. Research attention was uneven across restoration stages, with greater emphasis on degradation drivers and water constraints before restoration, and on early establishment rather than post-establishment management and long-term persistence during restoration. Goal–outcome alignment was high for major ecological objectives but substantially lower for socioeconomic goals, and cross-boundary effects were rarely considered. Together, these findings reveal that current research remains biased toward establishment and within-site outcomes, while ecological appropriateness, persistence, socioeconomic goal attainment, and broader spatial consequences receive comparatively limited attention. By quantitatively evaluating dryland tree-based restoration across the full restoration trajectory, our study identifies key evidence gaps and provides a framework for guiding restoration toward greater ecological appropriateness, long-term persistence, and goal-oriented evaluation.