LAB #2061 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+4.4pp, n=415) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have removed the three XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) if their phase distances exceeded 2°. That removes 4 losses from 10 trades, flipping the window from 5W/5L to 5W/1L (if the open USDJPY SHORT wins) — a raw win-rate jump from ~50% to ~83% on this sample. PnL delta is strongly positive, but the sample is tiny and biased toward removing high-volatility gold shorts, which may have been the very trades that would have won in a different phase regime. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter will reduce trade count by roughly 20–30% (n=415 → ~300), but if the +4.4pp win-rate holds, net expectancy improves only if average win size doesn't shrink prop Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22701973
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2061 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2061 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+4.4pp, n=415) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the current live window would have removed the three XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) if their phase distances exceeded 2°. That removes 4 losses from 10 trades, flipping the window from 5W/5L to 5W/1L (if the open USDJPY SHORT wins) — a raw win-rate jump from ~50% to ~83% on this sample. PnL delta is strongly positive, but the sample is tiny and biased toward removing high-volatility gold shorts, which may have been the very trades that would have won in a different phase regime. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter will reduce trade count by roughly 20–30% (n=415 → ~300), but if the +4.4pp win-rate holds, net expectancy improves only if average win size doesn't shrink prop Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2061 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS