Verification of grid-based spatial consistency between typhoon-derived risk and buoy-measured extreme winds for offshore wind farm siting in Korea

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of typhoon risks across potential offshore wind farm locations in Korea, with a particular focus on the validation of a stand-alone Typhoon Risk Score (TRS) using observational extreme wind measurements from nine offshore buoys. Drawing on 61 events of typhoon records provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration across from 1978 to 2024—including path, storm radius, and central pressure—risk parameters were normalized and weighted to produce a grid-based TRS through spatial GIS analysis. The resulting TRS was applied to 99 currently permitted offshore wind project sites, of which 14 sites (14.1%) were identified as high-risk (TRS exceeding 0.7). Extreme wind speed estimations from nine mid/long-term national marine buoys were compiled and statistically compared against site-specific TRS values. Further, ERA5 reanalysis data were used to correct and extend extreme wind statistics temporally, leading to a robust correlation with the TRS (correlation coefficients greater than 0.7). These findings indicate that the TRS, developed using historical typhoon events, offers practical insights into site suitability and constitutes a valuable decision-support tool for Korean offshore wind developers.