LAB #2060 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.6% (+1.6pp, n=1351) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool-density ≥90 filter to the current 10-trade window would have excluded trades where pool density was below threshold. Based on the backtest, this filter improves win rate by +1.6pp, but with only 10 trades here, the expected change is ~0–1 trades flipped. The three XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries) are prime candidates for exclusion if their pool density was low — if even one flips to a skip, the window's PnL improves by roughly one loss's magnitude (approx +0.5–1.0R). However, the two wins (AUDUSD, USDCAD) might also be filtered if their density was low, which could offset gains. Net expected delta on this tiny sample: −0.2 to +0.8R, statistically meaningless. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +1.6pp win-rate gain on ~1,350 trades translates to roughly +21 additional win Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22701970
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2060 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2060 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.6% (+1.6pp, n=1351) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool-density ≥90 filter to the current 10-trade window would have excluded trades where pool density was below threshold. Based on the backtest, this filter improves win rate by +1.6pp, but with only 10 trades here, the expected change is ~0–1 trades flipped. The three XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries) are prime candidates for exclusion if their pool density was low — if even one flips to a skip, the window's PnL improves by roughly one loss's magnitude (approx +0.5–1.0R). However, the two wins (AUDUSD, USDCAD) might also be filtered if their density was low, which could offset gains. Net expected delta on this tiny sample: −0.2 to +0.8R, statistically meaningless. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +1.6pp win-rate gain on ~1,350 trades translates to roughly +21 additional win Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Reduced inequalities
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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