Herd Effects in United States Internal Migration: Complementary Emulation Mechanisms Across Distance and Educational Attainment

ABSTRACT Internal migration in the United States is highly structured, concentrating into persistent corridors that link specific origins and destinations. While earlier studies have focused on social networks and push‐pull factors, less is known about how individuals emulate migration choices across regions. This study decomposes herd effects into two mechanisms: same‐destination emulation, in which people follow a pinpoint signal based on flows from adjacent origins to a specific destination, and nearby‐destination emulation, in which people follow a diffuse regional cue based on flows to the general area around a destination. Using migration data from 996 MIGPUMAs in the 2024 American Community Survey, along with lagged flows from 2016 to 2020, this study estimates spatial interaction models with two‐way fixed effects. The results show a complementary structure: nearby‐destination emulation is stronger in short‐distance moves, while same‐destination emulation becomes more important as distance increases, suggesting migrants rely more on pinpoint signals when uncertainty is greater. The moderating effect of distance on same‐destination emulation is more pronounced for migrants without a university education, but the difference is only marginally significant. Overall, the findings suggest that spatial dependence structures interregional migration, in which geographically embedded information diffusion creates and maintains migration corridors. By separating these emulation mechanisms, this study improves the modeling of interregional mobility and contributes to regional science research.