Determinants of renewable energy intensity in Sub-Saharan Africa

The devastating consequences of climate change have intensified the global imperative for renewable energy transition, with particular urgency in Africa, where vulnerability to climatic impacts is compounded by persistent poverty and weak institutions. Although existing literature has examined the determinants of renewable energy consumption and energy intensity separately, a gap remains in understanding the drivers of renewable energy intensity (REI) in Africa, how these drivers vary across sub-regions, and how income poverty moderates the effect of GDP growth on REI. This study employed the Driscoll-Kraay Fixed Effects, the Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL), and the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques to analyse data on 30 African countries over the period 1996 to 2021. Robust findings revealed that, while headcount poverty reduced REI by 0.11%, renewable energy consumption and GDP growth each increased REI by 0.187% and 1.89%, respectively. Sub-regional heterogeneity in the drivers of REI further suggests that uniform, continent-wide policies to promote renewable energy penetration may yield suboptimal outcomes. Additionally, headcount poverty is found to negatively moderate the effect of GDP growth on REI, stressing the centrality of poverty reduction in renewable energy transition pathways. African policymakers should therefore prioritise targeted investments in poverty reduction alongside renewable energy financing strategies to accelerate the penetration and intensity of renewable energy across the continent.