LAB #2054 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=621 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=621) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter would have blocked all 10 live trades listed, since every entry timestamp falls outside the NY_OPEN session (all are between 09:55 and 20:00 CET, which maps to pre-NY or London/afternoon hours). The live window shows 4 wins, 4 losses, 1 open, 1 expired — a 50% win rate on closed trades, which is already higher than the backtest's 38.2% NY_OPEN rate. Filtering to NY_OPEN would have eliminated all current activity, producing zero trades and zero PnL — a net loss of the +2 wins already banked. The backtest's +6.2pp improvement is not reflected in this live sample; in fact, the non-NY trades here outperform the proposed filter's historical average. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the NY_OPEN filter would reduce trade frequency dramatically (likely 60-80% fewer signals), concen Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22701867
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint