A two-stage stochastic optimization dispatch for H-IES considering a GCT-CET joint mechanism and green-blue hydrogen dynamic synergistic supply

Currently, green hydrogen requires large power consumption. With the growth of hydrogen energy demand in energy systems, single green or blue hydrogen production faces the challenge of high cost or high carbon emissions. To solve this problem, under the interactive background of various mechanisms such as carbon emission trading (CET)and green certificate trading(GCT), we propose a two-stage optimal scheduling model of a new hydrogen based Integrated energy system (H-IES) based on coordinated hydrogen production of green hydrogen and blue hydrogen, aiming to reduce operating costs and solve the uncertainty of new energy sources. Firstly, a H-IES framework with “generation-storage-multiple applications” considering different hydrogen production paths is established. Secondly, the GCT-CET multiple market interaction mechanisms are modeled in the operation of H-IES and the impact on economic and environmental benefits is analyzed. Finally, a two-stage optimal scheduling model is established. In the day-ahead stage, the dynamic coordinated hydrogen supply path operation plan is optimized based on the predicted data to reduce the operating cost. In the real-time stage, the source-load prediction error is considered to further achieve the optimal operation of each device with the minimum expected operating cost in different scenarios. The simulation results show that:1) Compared with case 4 (deterministic forecasting), the proposed two-stage stochastic optimization framework with dynamically coordinated green and blue hydrogen supply (case 5) reduces the total system cost by 14.93% and carbon emissions by 37.35%, thereby facilitating the low-carbon transition of the industrial park.2) The introduction of the GCT-CET joint mechanism reduces the cost to 14794.97 CNY, which is about 20.8% lower than that of Case 5. Meanwhile, carbon emissions are significantly reduced from 8176.70 kg to 3907.95 kg, indicating that the proposed market mechanism can effectively reduce system operating costs and promote carbon emission reduction. This shows that the model considers uncertain factors with different probabilities, making the optimization results more realistic, while the introduction of the market mechanism helps reduce system operating costs and achieve low-carbon operation.