Assessing ecosystem service values responses to livelihood transitions in an Arid Mountain–Oasis–Desert system

Balancing ecological conservation and rural livelihoods represents a critical challenge in arid social-ecological systems. Livelihood transitions among agropastoral households strongly influence the area allocated to different land-use types, thereby shaping regional ecosystem service values (ESV)，yet this decision-to-ecosystem pathway remains insufficiently represented in arid mountain–oasis–desert systems (MODS). To address this gap, a livelihood transition framework with an agent-based model (ABM) was integrated to simulate land-use change and evaluate ESV responses under three scenarios in a typical MODS of northern Xinjiang, China. Three livelihood transition scenarios—natural development following existing livelihood and land-use trends, profit oriented emphasizing income-driven livelihood choices, and ecological regulation prioritizing ecosystem conservation—were designed to explore future trajectories. The model was validated through historical back-casting and used for comparative scenario analysis. Relative to the ESV in 2020, total ESV was projected to decline under all three scenarios by 2030, with reductions of 33.3, 7.0 and 6.1 billion CNY under the natural-development, profit-oriented, and ecological-regulation scenarios, respectively. The ecological-regulation scenario showed the smallest decline in total ESV, while its main advantage over the profit-oriented scenario was reflected in relatively higher regulating and supporting service values associated with greater grassland retention. These findings deepen the understanding of the MODS as an integrated social–ecological system in which livelihood strategies, land-use allocation, and ecosystem-service responses are closely interconnected. This perspective provides a theoretical basis for coordinated ecosystem management and sustainable livelihood-transition research in arid agropastoral regions.