LAB #2042 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.8% (+0.8pp, n=1037) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have excluded the three XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.34508) if those timestamps fell in that quarterly phase. That removes 3–4 losing trades from the 10 listed, leaving the wins intact (AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY, EURJPY LONG, GBPUSD LONG). Win rate in this window would jump from ~50% (5/10) to ~83% (5/6) if all four losses are filtered, with PnL improving by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ~0.6R each). However, the open USDJPY SHORT remains unfiltered, so its outcome is unknown. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.8pp win-rate gain (32.0→32.8%) is marginal and likely within noise for n=1037 — the confidence interval is roughly ±3pp at that sample size. The filter may be o Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com