Does the obesity Kuznets curve exist in India? Evidence from smooth transition autoregressive model

Purpose Obesity has become a significant public health challenge worldwide, affecting both developed and developing countries. Despite global efforts to halt its rise, obesity remains a persistent social issue, leading to considerable economic costs due to obesity-related diseases. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the Obesity Kuznets Curve (OKC) in India, specifically investigating the threshold effects of economic growth on obesity prevalence. Design/methodology/approach The research examines the influence of economic growth on obesity prevalence using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model, an effective method for capturing non-linear relationships. The analysis is based on annual data from 1990 to 2022. Findings The results from the STAR model indicate a non-linear relationship between obesity prevalence and economic growth. The analysis identified a threshold value of 7.22 for the economic growth rate. Up to this point, economic growth positively impacts obesity prevalence. However, once this threshold is exceeded, economic growth negatively impacts obesity, thereby validating the OKC hypothesis in India. Furthermore, trade openness, urbanisation, and unemployment are found to exert positive effects on obesity prevalence. Research limitations/implications The findings suggest that economic policies in India should focus on managing growth beyond the identified threshold to curb rising obesity rates. Targeted interventions, such as promoting healthier lifestyles and addressing income inequality, could be crucial in ensuring that further economic development does not exacerbate obesity prevalence. Originality/value Research on the OKC has mainly focused on developed countries, with scant studies in developing nations like India. There is a notable gap in understanding whether the OKC hypothesis applies to India’s rapidly growing economy and rising obesity rates. This study addresses this gap by using the STAR model to explore non-linear effects and threshold levels in the income-obesity relationship in India.