Modelling the Economic Viability of Bitcoin Mining as a Flexibility Resource in European Electricity Markets (2015–2025)

Bitcoin mining is a highly energy-intensive process whose economic sustainability depends on the complex interplay of electricity prices, Bitcoin prices, operating mode and technological efficiency. This paper analyses these relationships through simulation models built on an eleven-year dataset (2015–2025) of hourly electricity price data for France and fixed technological parameters. The analysis proceeds in five steps, comparing flexible and continuous mining, quantifying the effect of the electricity price threshold, examining the interaction between the BTC price and the sales strategy, identifying the energy profitability threshold, and finally determining the electricity price threshold that best balances profit and risk. The results show that, although flexible mining generates lower absolute profits than continuous mining, it substantially reduces the risk of losses and improves cost efficiency per BTC. The electricity threshold price proved to be a key parameter: raising it increases total profit, but also increases volatility and unit costs. The energy analysis identified a sustainability threshold of approximately 600,000 kWh/BTC, above which mining becomes unprofitable under the tested conditions. Finally, the risk-adjusted analysis shows that the threshold price that best balances long-term stability and profit is lower than the threshold that maximises absolute profit. The paper thus contributes new insights into the economic sustainability of Bitcoin mining and establishes a methodological framework for evaluating price-responsive flexible loads under volatile market conditions, with implications for miners, investors and policymakers concerned with the efficient use of energy resources.