The rise and decline of Turkey’s middle class: the transformation of income, socio-economic profile, and living conditions

Abstract This study investigates Turkey’s middle class and its changes in terms of income, socio-economic profile, and living standards using the 2006–2023 Survey of Income and Living Conditions. It estimates the size of the middle class using various median income thresholds and compares these relative measures with absolute benchmarks. The results indicate a steady expansion of the middle class between 2006 and 2017, followed by a contraction after 2018 in a context of macroeconomic instability and persistent and high inflation. This study further analyzes changes in the demographic and employment characteristics of the middle class and evaluates changes in their standard of living indicators. Findings reveal demographic aging and a growing concentration of middle-class employment in lower-wage service sectors. Declining homeownership, reduced consumption capacity, and rising financial strain point to a deterioration in living standards relative to their 2017 level, even though several indicators remain improved compared to 2006. The study concludes that the middle class has become more economically vulnerable, and that the future direction of economic policy will be critical for sustaining both its size and its economic well-being.