Can CO2 Capture and Storage Deliver Carbon Reductions for India? Insights from a Contextually-Explicit Life Cycle Analysis

Abstract India’s stated goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2070 is expected to require large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the climate mitigation potential of CCS pathways in India remains insufficiently evaluated from a life cycle perspective, both for CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and dedicated geological storage. This study presents a contextually explicit cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessment (LCA) of CO2-EOR and dedicated CO2 storage using coal-fired power plants and petroleum refineries as CO2 capture sources in the Indian context. The results show that dedicated geological storage in saline aquifers or depleted reservoirs consistently delivers reduced emissions than the incumbent cases. Meanwhile, CO2-EOR results insubstantial downstream emissions from combustion of the incremental hydrocarbons produced. Gross life cycle emissions for power-plant-sourced CO2-EOR and dedicated storage were estimated at approximately 1,810 and 244 kgCO2e/tCO2, respectively, while corresponding mean net emissions after displacement credits are approximately 918 and −649 kgCO2e/tCO2. For refinery-sourced CO2, mean net emissions are approximately 1,463 kgCO2e/tCO2 for CO2-EOR and −103 kgCO2e/tCO2 for dedicated storage (after accounting for displacement credits). The analysis further identifies the CO2 utilization factor as the dominant parameter controlling the environmental performance of CO2-EOR systems. Breakeven utilization factors required to achieve net-zero emissions were estimated at approximately 0.8 tCO2/bbl for power-plant-sourced CO2 and 5.2 tCO2/bbl for refinery-sourced CO2. The study demonstrates that CCS pathways cannot be treated uniformly as their mitigation effectiveness depends strongly on source characteristics, storage configuration, and operational performance. Furthermore, while CO2-EOR may support early CCS infrastructure development in India, dedicated geological storage offers substantially greater long-term climate mitigation potential.