Forecasting the Unforeseeable: Structured Analytic Techniques, STEMPLES+, and Scenarios for Post-Coup Niger (2023–2030)

This paper argues that quantitative early-warning models (ViEWS, PITF) display a systematic persistence bias in transition environments — contexts of deep state fragility dominated by endogenous political shocks — and that integrating Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) produces qualitatively more robust prospective assessments for this class of cases. Applying the STEMPLES+ framework to post-coup Niger (July 2023) and constructing three scenarios for the 2026-2030 horizon, the paper demonstrates how SATs capture political and institutional drivers that econometric models treat as unobservable latent variables. The analysis covers the AES discontinuity, the withdrawal of Western forces, the arrival of Africa Corps, and jihadist dynamics in the Niger River basin.