A Hierarchical Artificial Intelligence Framework for the Inverse Calibration of Spatially Distributed Manning’s Roughness Coefficients in HEC-RAS Models

Accurate calibration of Manning’s roughness coefficients is essential for reliable river hydraulic modelling, flood prediction, and water resources management, yet conventional calibration methods often struggle with high-dimensional parameter spaces and nonlinear hydraulic interactions. This study proposes and evaluates a hierarchical artificial intelligence framework for the inverse calibration of spatially distributed Manning’s roughness coefficients across three channel zones (left bank, main channel, and right bank), using a 48 km reach of the Tigris River in Baghdad as a case study. A one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model based on 30 measured cross-sections generated 18,360 simulations by systematically varying Manning’s roughness coefficients (0.02–0.045). Three calibration strategies were evaluated: (i) a simple Gradient Boosting Regression model based on a weighted composite roughness formula, (ii) conventional machine learning models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multi-Layer Perceptron), and (iii) a deep learning framework combining a three-layer neural network (64 → 32 → 16 neurons), Differential Evolution optimisation, and cubic spline interpolation. Calibration accuracy increased with model complexity. The deep learning framework achieved the best performance, reducing the root mean square error by 96.6% (from 1.202 to 0.041 m), with R2 = 0.992 and negligible bias (−0.004 m). Conventional machine learning models produced spatially variable Manning’s roughness distributions, with the calibrated main-channel roughness (mean n = 0.0512) being 34.0–57.5% higher than the corresponding bank values. The proposed framework provides an effective approach for calibrating spatially distributed roughness coefficients in one-dimensional hydraulic models, with strong potential to improve river hydraulic simulations and support future applications to flood modelling.