Rapeseed Price Volatility and Long-Term Forecasting in Poland: Implications for the Sustainability of EU Biofuel Policy

Rapeseed price stability is an important determinant of the long-term sustainability of biofuel production and the economic resilience of farms in the European Union. This study evaluates long-term rapeseed price dynamics in Poland and assesses their implications for biofuel production and agricultural resilience. Annual data for 2005–2024 were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, while ARIMA models were used for forecasting and GARCH models were estimated from 778 daily MATIF observations for 18 February 2022–10 March 2025. The results show substantial price variability, with pronounced changes associated with international market conditions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The ARIMA forecasts for 2025–2034 indicate a projected decline in the analyzed rapeseed and rapeseed-product prices; however, the widening forecast errors indicate increasing uncertainty over the longer horizon. The findings suggest that long-term price uncertainty should be considered in policies supporting the resilience of rapeseed producers and the stability of feedstock supply for renewable fuels.