A probabilistic framework for modeling chloride‐induced corrosion and related load‐deformation behaviour of reinforced concrete

Abstract Chloride‐exposed reinforced‐concrete structures often suffer localized corrosion, so corrosion initiation time and average steel loss are poor indicators of structural performance. This paper presents a spatially resolved, proof‐of‐concept framework that couples diffusion‐based chloride ingress and initiation with a localized morphology model and maps the resulting deterioration field to structural damage descriptors for non‐linear finite element analysis. Repeated coupled runs propagate spatial variability to distributions of ultimate limit state failure age, corrosion‐induced deflection growth, and time‐dependent performance timelines. For a cantilever slab with a localized chloride ingress zone (motivated here by a local waterproofing failure), responses are governed by the extent and severity of loss in the fixed‐support zone rather than single extremes. The approach supports performance‐based intervention planning while maintaining required safety levels.