LAB #1999 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0.4pp, n=669) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the FAR (>10deg) filter would have excluded trades where phase distance is below threshold. In the current window, the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) are prime candidates for exclusion if their phase distance fell under 10deg — likely removing 2-3 of the 4 losses. The USDCAD WIN and EURJPY WIN would likely remain, preserving most gains. Net effect: win rate in this small sample could rise from 5/10 to 5/7 or 6/8, a meaningful PnL improvement if the filter removes only losers — but with n=10, this is noise-level evidence. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a +0.4pp win-rate gain on n=669 is statistically weak (p≈0.2-0.3), meaning it could easily be regression to the mean. The filter risks overfitting to a specific regime (e.g., Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22684758
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1999 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1999 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0.4pp, n=669) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the FAR (>10deg) filter would have excluded trades where phase distance is below threshold. In the current window, the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) are prime candidates for exclusion if their phase distance fell under 10deg — likely removing 2-3 of the 4 losses. The USDCAD WIN and EURJPY WIN would likely remain, preserving most gains. Net effect: win rate in this small sample could rise from 5/10 to 5/7 or 6/8, a meaningful PnL improvement if the filter removes only losers — but with n=10, this is noise-level evidence. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a +0.4pp win-rate gain on n=669 is statistically weak (p≈0.2-0.3), meaning it could easily be regression to the mean. The filter risks overfitting to a specific regime (e.g., Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Reduced inequalities
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #1999 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.3% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS