Intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios

The effects of global warming can erode livelihoods and pose serious risks to human security, including through the influence of temperature anomalies on violence and aggression. Although previous studies have linked temperature to violent behavior, comparative evidence on its effects within intimate partnerships, where women often experience violence, remains scarce. Moreover, little is known about how increasing temperature stress under climate change may shape violence risks under different development and population pathways. Addressing these gaps, we study the impacts of temperature anomalies on intimate partner violence (IPV) based on individual-level data of women aged 15–49 from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted 2003–2024 in 31 sub-Saharan African countries. Using fixed effects models, we first estimate the historical effects of temperature anomalies, individual characteristics, and regional socioeconomic development on IPV. In a second step, we build on these estimates by projecting IPV prevalence until 2050 under three scenarios, capturing changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as elements of women’s risk. We find that temperature anomalies increase emotional and physical, but not sexual IPV, disproportionately affecting women in rural locations with primary or lower education. Across all future scenarios, the absolute number of women affected by IPV increases, mainly due to population growth, while the share decreases due to shifts in population composition and economic development. These results suggest that, despite falling IPV prevalence, more women are in need of policies that address IPV by combining climate action with inclusive development, resilience-building, and empowerment of women.