Ibn khaldūn on a tank: the dilemma of failed counterterrorism strategy after coup d’étatsi

In May 2023, the Egyptian regime launched the so-called ‘national dialogue’ sessions between the authority and the opposition. Conjunctionally, some commentators hastily claimed (and others bragged) that this marked the end of political apathy and the closure of the public sphere in Egypt. Contrary to such optimistic views, I argue that calls for dialogue and reconciliation do not present a serious or sustainable initiative. This is due to the fact that actual policies and practices on the ground contradict the very essence of these calls. Unless his regime abandons its repressive approach, Sisi’s counterterrorism strategy is destined to fail. To explain the persistent failure of initiatives for negotiation and reconciliation related to combating violent extremism in a post counterrevolutionary Egypt since 2013, this paper proposes an alternative analytical framework grounded in Ibn K̲h̲aldūn’s political thought. This framework unpacks the articulation between the arbitrary deployment of violence and oppression as constitutive elements of state-building and the consolidation of political legitimacy by the new ruling ʿasabiyya. It further investigates Egypt’s deteriorating security conditions and turbulent state-society relations.