Did 57,500 people live in Schleswig-Holstein in 3000 BC? Prehistoric population estimates for East Holstein and Schleswig-Holstein

Abstract This study examines demographic developments in East Holstein and Schleswig-Holstein between 3300 and 2800 BCE during the Middle Neolithic phases (MN I–V) of the Funnel Beaker Culture. Using archaeological settlement and burial data and applying geostatistical methods – especially the “Cologne Protocol” – the research estimates diachronic population densities. The primary focus is on the western Oldenburger Graben in East Holstein, an area with excellent archaeological documentation (e.g., Oldenburg-Dannau LA 77). The findings suggest population densities in East Holstein ranging from 0.9 to 9.5 persons per km² (assuming 8-person households). In contrast, Schleswig-Holstein shows lower values of 0.31 to 3.06 persons per km². Applying a correction factor, the population of Schleswig-Holstein around 3000 BCE is estimated at approximately 57,500 individuals. Additional data sources, including settlement size (in hectares), summed probability distributions (SPD) from radiocarbon dates, and palynological data, support the demographic model. The results point to a population peak between 3100–3000 BCE, followed by a decline in MN V. The findings align with broader Northern European studies and highlight the significance of East Holstein as a key region for prehistoric demographic research.