Exploring Feedstock Pathways to Three Billion Gallons of Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Roles of Contracts and Bioenergy Crop Insurance

ABSTRACT This study examines how contracts and bioenergy crop yield insurance incentivize biomass supply for three billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. Results show that meeting feedstock demand by growing uninsured miscanthus requires a fixed biomass price at $78–$86/metric ton, a revenue share of 32%–36%, or a land‐leasing payment about $178/acre. Growing uninsured switchgrass requires similar terms. Bioenergy crop insurance partially substitutes for compensation for bearing production risk, decreasing required fixed prices and revenue shares by 4% (6%) for miscanthus (switchgrass), while having minimal impact on bioenergy crop acreage and average biomass production cost, but mixed effects on farmers' welfare gains.