Decadal land use and land cover change drives land surface temperature variation in the Falgu River Basin of Gaya district

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes driven by rapid urbanization and population growth have significantly altered surface characteristics, thereby influencing local climate and thermal regimes. This study examines the decadal transformation of LULC in the Falgu River Basin and its impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Gaya district, India, over the period 2000–2020 using Landsat satellite imagery. The results indicate a substantial expansion of agricultural land (56.03% to 59.13%), built-up areas (17.40% to 18.65%), and water bodies (3.24% to 5.70%), accompanied by a marked decline in forest cover (10.75% to 7.56%) and barren land (11.07% to 7.27%). Correspondingly, LST shown a significant increasing trend, with values ranging from 11.2 to 21.7 °C in 2000, rising to 13.7–30.42 °C in 2010, and further increasing to 20.4–34.8 °C in 2020, indicating intensified surface warming associated with land-use transitions. NDVI analysis revealed a declining trend in vegetation greenness, with lower NDVI values observed in areas experiencing urban expansion and deforestation, demonstrating a strong inverse relationship between NDVI and LST. The classification accuracy is confirmed by high Kappa coefficients of 89.18%, 91.89%, and 89.88% for 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Overall, the study highlights that increasing anthropogenic pressure and land conversion have significantly contributed to rising surface temperatures and vegetation degradation. These findings provide critical insights for sustainable land-use planning, ecological conservation, and climate-responsive urban management strategies in the Falgu River Basin.