LAB #2015 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.9% to 34.8% (+2.8pp, n=46) — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: EURUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.9% to 34.8% (+2.8pp, n=46) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a EURUSD LONG-only filter would have had zero direct impact on the current live window, as none of the ten listed trades are EURUSD. The filter would not have blocked or altered any of the XAUUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, or EURJPY positions. Therefore, the win-rate delta of +2.8pp from the backtest (n=46) cannot be validated or refuted here — it is orthogonal to this sample. Expected PnL delta in this window: $0, with no trade count change. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a EURUSD LONG-only filter would reduce total trade frequency (since it excludes EURUSD shorts and all other pairs), likely improving win rate per trade but possibly lowering absolute PnL due to fewer opportunities. The +2.8pp improvement is modest and may be curve-fit to a small sample (n=46); real-world slippage, spread, Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-10
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22689426
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint