Who Receives the Interest Bill? Pricing rules, payment timing, and the transmission of monetary shocks to sovereign interest expenditure
The working paper titled "Who Receives the Interest Bill? Pricing rules, payment timing, and the transmission of monetary shocks to sovereign interest expenditure", studies the annual interest generated by an existing stock of sovereign debt and asks how pricing rules and payment timing determine the bill. It classifies claims by whether their rates reset to a market index, pass through a creditor's pooled funding cost, or accrue under contractual deferral. The accounting framework separates accrued interest, cash payments and swap-adjusted cash cost. A five-country euro-area illustration shows that holder residency alone does not order the interest burden. The main application is Greece. Published EFSF and ESM rates yield eleven and nine usable annual first differences: the EFSF lending rate responds to the previous year's three-month Euribor change by about 0.11 in a small annual sample, while the ESM estimate spans zero. The Greek Loan Facility has a unit index coefficient by contract, but no comparable time-series estimate is possible. For 2024, subtracting published EFSF and ESM cash interest from budget code C2650202001 leaves EUR 1,896.516 million; this is a residual, not a published GLF ledger figure, and exceeds a contractual reconstruction by EUR 181.4 million. The paper is descriptive and does not estimate a causal effect. The replication package accompanies version 5.0 of the working paper “Who Receives the Interest Bill? Pricing rules, payment timing, and the transmission of monetary shocks to sovereign interest expenditure.” The package contains the manuscript, public-source material, processed datasets, source documentation and reproducible code used to construct and verify the paper’s principal quantitative results. These include the five-country comparison of government-debt holder composition, the decomposition of Greece’s official-creditor interest payments, the reconciliation of Public Debt Management Agency debt categories, and the payment-weighted reconstruction of Greek Loan Facility interest reported in Appendix D. The bundled source material includes the full ESM Interest and Fees export, Eurostat holder-composition API responses for the five countries, official EFSF and ESM documents, Greek Public Debt Management Agency bulletins and maturity data, the public Greek Loan Facility agreement, the 2024 Court of Audit report, and documented interest-rate and budget observations. The package also includes processed tables, reconstruction and validation scripts, a file manifest and SHA-256 checksums. The central 2024 accounting reconciliation and the annual EFSF and ESM cash-interest series for 2019–2025 are directly reproducible. Interest, fees, principal payments and deferred interest are retained as separate categories. Evidence limitations are documented explicitly. The Greek Loan Facility interest amount for 2024 is an arithmetic residual from the published support-mechanism interest total after subtracting EFSF and ESM cash interest; it is not a separately published creditor-level ledger amount. No zero-floor clause was located in the publicly available agreement. The complete pre-2023 ECB series required to re-estimate the lending-rate regressions, and the raw Eurostat gov_10a_main and gov_10dd_edpt1 responses underlying one secondary table, are not bundled. The corresponding results are identified as frozen published outputs, and no missing observations are imputed or silently reconstructed. Reserved DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22230351
Authors
- Markos Thomadakis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5573-9058)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-10
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22697539
- Primary Topic
- European Monetary and Fiscal Policies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00