Material flow assessment of photovoltaic waste in India: Quantification, characterization, and resource recovery potential to 2050

Rapid renewable energy expansion is driving Photovoltaic (PV) deployment, creating a growing end-of-life waste challenge. However, integrated assessments of PV waste quantification, characterization, and secondary material supply chains remain limited, particularly in developing economies such as India. This study addresses this gap by applying a combined Weibull-based lifetime modeling and dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) framework to evaluate PV waste generation and resource recovery potential. The study initiates the establishment of a secondary material supply chain for PV waste. Projections indicate that India will generate 4-4.2 million tonnes of PV waste by 2050, comprising 68% glass, 15% aluminum, and 9% steel, with an economic valuation of $11.22 billion, of which $10.83 billion is retainable through proper recycling. If improperly handled, 51 tonnes of hazardous Lead and Cadmium will reach landfills, causing serious environmental concerns. Notably, the study raises concerns over the success of an Extended Producers' Responsibility mandate in India.