Beyond subjective judgment: Enhancing input reliability for military simulations through Fuzzy PROMETHEE

In contemporary defense capability planning, the transition from subjective expert judgment to objective, simulation-based assessment is critical. However, the reliability of inputs of constructive simulations is inherently limited by the quality and stability of their input parameters, specifically the weighting of performance criteria. This article presents a methodological framework for structuring criteria priority vectors as a vital pre-processing stage for military simulations. To address the linguistic vagueness of strategic assessments and the limitations of traditional methods like the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), this research introduces an advanced approach based on the Fuzzy PROMETHEE method. Through a case study focused on long-range loitering munitions, the study demonstrates how fuzzy outranking flows can transform subjective expert elicitation into a resilient data-input structure. A sensitivity analysis confirms that the proposed model significantly reduces subjective bias and provides a stable weighting foundation that is resistant to minor fluctuations in expert judgment. By establishing a transparent and mathematically rigorous audit trail for criteria selection, this framework serves as a robust pre-processing stage for simulation-based verification in tools like MASA SWORD or JCATS. It bridges the gap between qualitative tactical expertise and the quantitative requirements of constructive simulation, ensuring that subsequent evaluations of the operational effectiveness coefficient (OEC) are grounded in a reliable analytical foundation.