Research on Allocation Strategies for Carbon Emission Reduction in Transportation Sector Based on TIMES Model

China has proposed dual carbon goals to advance its sustainable development. As one of the country’s major sources of carbon emissions, effective emission control of the transportation sector is central to achieving these goals. There is a lack of research on the optimal allocation of emission reduction targets across transportation sub-sectors from the perspective of total cost-minimization. This paper develops a carbon emission reduction allocation model based on the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) framework. The model identifies the optimal allocation scheme across different transportation sectors and technology pathways in order to minimize the total abatement cost. A marginal abatement cost curve is constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and reduction potential of various schemes. Using Fujian Province in China as a research case, the results show that from 2022 to 2030, urban passenger transportation (UPT), intercity passenger transportation (IPT), and freight transportation (FT) are expected to undertake 52.7%, 11.1%, and 36.2% of the total carbon reduction potential, corresponding to emission reductions of 13.488 million tons, 2.845 million tons, and 9.255 million tons, respectively. Compared with equal allocation and turnover-proportional allocation schemes, the TIMES-based optimization reduces the overall abatement cost by 22.13 billion yuan. The model effectively minimizes the total system cost while achieving the carbon reduction targets, and the results provide a reference for formulating carbon emission mitigation policies.